1 00:00:00,055 --> 00:00:03,660 Welcome on another episode of the Democracy Innovator podcast. 2 00:00:03,660 --> 00:00:07,526 My name is Alessandro Oppo and our guest of today is Simon Horton. 3 00:00:07,526 --> 00:00:10,410 So thank you Simon for your time. 4 00:00:11,308 --> 00:00:12,839 Thank you. Thank you for having me here. 5 00:00:13,791 --> 00:00:19,740 And I know that you are working on negotiation. 6 00:00:19,740 --> 00:00:24,857 And if you'd like to share something about your background and the things 7 00:00:24,857 --> 00:00:26,009 you have worked on. 8 00:00:27,210 --> 00:00:28,210 Yeah, 9 00:00:27,661 --> 00:00:30,143 yeah, sure. So, well, my background, 10 00:00:30,143 --> 00:00:33,488 before teaching negotiation, 11 00:00:33,488 --> 00:00:36,331 I've been teaching negotiation for 20 years, 12 00:00:36,331 --> 00:00:39,580 but before that I worked in IT. 13 00:00:39,580 --> 00:00:40,580 ~ 14 00:00:40,964 --> 00:00:47,147 in finance, I used to design derivatives trading systems and I was good 15 00:00:47,147 --> 00:00:49,168 at it but hated every moment of it. 16 00:00:49,168 --> 00:00:55,711 And I had a lot of mental health crises when I was doing this work 17 00:00:56,171 --> 00:00:58,432 and a girlfriend, before she left me, 18 00:00:58,432 --> 00:01:02,704 before she slammed the door, she turned around and pointed at me and said, 19 00:01:02,704 --> 00:01:04,355 you need to sort your head out. 20 00:01:04,355 --> 00:01:07,206 And she told me to do some NLP, 21 00:01:07,206 --> 00:01:10,748 neuro-linguistic programming, which is kind of psychology. 22 00:01:11,078 --> 00:01:17,224 applied psychology ~ and so I thought maybe she's right and so I did give 23 00:01:17,224 --> 00:01:22,118 it a go and it did work it did sort my head out and I described myself 24 00:01:22,118 --> 00:01:27,844 as pre NLP unhappy post NLP happy and I enjoyed 25 00:01:27,844 --> 00:01:32,618 it so much that I wanted to do more of it and I wanted to teach it 26 00:01:32,858 --> 00:01:34,099 but the problem was 27 00:01:35,552 --> 00:01:38,113 the world doesn't buy it so much, 28 00:01:38,113 --> 00:01:43,774 it does buy its applications. the most obvious commercial 29 00:01:43,774 --> 00:01:47,795 context, commercial application of psychology, 30 00:01:47,795 --> 00:01:51,776 I felt was negotiation. Because when you're negotiating, 31 00:01:51,776 --> 00:01:53,556 you're negotiating with other people, 32 00:01:53,556 --> 00:01:57,738 you need to understand their decision-making process, 33 00:01:57,738 --> 00:02:00,658 this kind of stuff, you need to know how they think. 34 00:02:00,658 --> 00:02:01,739 And... 35 00:02:03,851 --> 00:02:07,731 So basically, 20 years ago, somebody asked me if I could run 36 00:02:07,731 --> 00:02:09,531 a negotiations course and I said, 37 00:02:09,531 --> 00:02:13,971 yes, I can. And I did it very much from a psychology perspective, 38 00:02:13,971 --> 00:02:17,871 but then I just built on it and built on it and built on it. 39 00:02:17,871 --> 00:02:21,831 And yeah, I've been running it for 20 years now, 40 00:02:21,831 --> 00:02:24,251 work with all kinds of organizations, 41 00:02:24,251 --> 00:02:27,211 people like Goldman Sachs, the British Army, 42 00:02:27,211 --> 00:02:29,871 the Qatar Investment Authority. 43 00:02:29,871 --> 00:02:33,771 I've worked in over 25 countries. 44 00:02:33,805 --> 00:02:37,998 I'm a visiting lecturer at Imperial College here in London and I've written 45 00:02:37,998 --> 00:02:40,155 a number of books on the topic. 46 00:02:40,155 --> 00:02:44,081 So that's basically what I do and how I got here. 47 00:02:46,064 --> 00:02:49,067 And if we talk about negotiation, 48 00:02:49,067 --> 00:02:54,354 how can we define it? What is to negotiate something? 49 00:02:55,275 --> 00:02:57,117 ~ 50 00:02:57,117 --> 00:03:02,521 So negotiation, guess, is ~ when two people, 51 00:03:02,521 --> 00:03:08,746 two or more people have desired outcomes 52 00:03:08,926 --> 00:03:09,926 in mind. 53 00:03:10,495 --> 00:03:15,481 but there might be differences in those outcomes and maybe even conflicting outcomes 54 00:03:15,481 --> 00:03:19,265 that my outcome is the opposite of yours and yours is the opposite 55 00:03:19,265 --> 00:03:22,929 of mine or whatever. So we then engage in a process, 56 00:03:22,929 --> 00:03:27,113 a conversation, a dialogue by which we can really try and... 57 00:03:27,113 --> 00:03:28,495 ~ 58 00:03:28,854 --> 00:03:33,788 Well, if we do it properly, we try and really understand the reasons behind 59 00:03:33,788 --> 00:03:37,992 the outcomes, to understand the constraints on each side. 60 00:03:37,992 --> 00:03:40,284 And then we can, if we do it properly, 61 00:03:40,284 --> 00:03:46,339 we can come to a solution that genuinely meets your outcome 62 00:03:46,379 --> 00:03:51,523 and meets my outcome. Unfortunately, 63 00:03:51,523 --> 00:03:56,347 negotiation is a field where there is a... 64 00:03:57,324 --> 00:04:02,416 common sense view where the majority have ~ an agreed perspective 65 00:04:02,416 --> 00:04:09,179 on negotiation and that perspective is wrong unfortunately that most people view 66 00:04:09,179 --> 00:04:15,172 negotiation as the arm wrestle I'm stronger than you know I'm stronger than 67 00:04:15,172 --> 00:04:21,553 you kind of thing and so and they lie and they hold information back 68 00:04:21,553 --> 00:04:27,267 and do all kinds of tricks to get a good outcome and unfortunately this isn't a good 69 00:04:27,297 --> 00:04:30,818 approach and the best negotiators realize this, 70 00:04:30,818 --> 00:04:35,220 the best negotiators view negotiation 71 00:04:35,400 --> 00:04:41,952 as a collaborative problem-solving process where the problem 72 00:04:41,952 --> 00:04:46,043 to be solved is you've got an outcome you want to achieve, 73 00:04:46,043 --> 00:04:48,704 I've got an outcome I want to achieve, 74 00:04:48,704 --> 00:04:52,726 you've got real constraints, real limitations, 75 00:04:52,726 --> 00:04:55,667 I've got my constraints and limitations 76 00:04:56,683 --> 00:04:59,303 but you've got your resources you can bring to the table, 77 00:04:59,303 --> 00:05:04,223 I've got my resources, right, let's put all of that on the table 78 00:05:04,223 --> 00:05:09,843 and then work together to solve that equation so that you get your outcome 79 00:05:09,843 --> 00:05:13,043 and I get my outcome given the constraints. 80 00:05:13,043 --> 00:05:19,143 the best negotiators view it that way and that's a much more effective way, 81 00:05:19,143 --> 00:05:23,943 even for selfish reasons. Even if you are the most evil, 82 00:05:23,943 --> 00:05:26,637 selfish psychopath in the world and I'm sure you're 83 00:05:26,637 --> 00:05:30,059 you're not Alessandro. But even if you were to be, 84 00:05:30,059 --> 00:05:35,262 your best approach is to take this collaborative problem-solving approach. 85 00:05:35,262 --> 00:05:36,703 You'll get better outcomes. 86 00:05:38,473 --> 00:05:44,756 And do they exist a different kind of negotiation? 87 00:05:44,756 --> 00:05:50,470 I mean in relation to the ~ to the issue like if there are more people 88 00:05:50,470 --> 00:05:54,111 I wonder if they can be classified this kind 89 00:05:54,111 --> 00:06:00,179 of so I want an outcome you would like another outcome 90 00:06:00,179 --> 00:06:01,812 and 91 00:06:02,625 --> 00:06:06,740 I wonder when it goes well, the negotiation, 92 00:06:06,740 --> 00:06:11,906 and when it goes bad, and if there are some elements characteristic 93 00:06:11,906 --> 00:06:15,370 of this going well or going bad. 94 00:06:16,565 --> 00:06:19,156 So yeah, well, many, many characteristics. 95 00:06:19,156 --> 00:06:23,158 ~ So it's when people, 96 00:06:23,158 --> 00:06:28,460 so we can broadly say people fit into 97 00:06:28,460 --> 00:06:33,622 two types of people. The competitive negotiators, 98 00:06:33,622 --> 00:06:39,485 aggressive negotiators, ~ and collaborative negotiators. 99 00:06:39,485 --> 00:06:43,387 ~ And the competitive negotiators, 100 00:06:44,287 --> 00:06:46,368 Basically, that's not a good approach, 101 00:06:46,368 --> 00:06:48,419 again, even for their own perspective, 102 00:06:48,419 --> 00:06:50,990 because if they are too competitive, 103 00:06:50,990 --> 00:06:54,091 well, the other person will be competitive back. 104 00:06:54,091 --> 00:06:59,273 And so now all of the energy is spent against each other. 105 00:06:59,273 --> 00:07:03,915 Rather than collaborative, all of the energy is spent solving 106 00:07:03,915 --> 00:07:05,716 the problem and creating value. 107 00:07:05,716 --> 00:07:09,258 Now, you might think, yeah, but what if I'm the strongest? 108 00:07:09,258 --> 00:07:11,258 Then I don't care about the other person. 109 00:07:11,258 --> 00:07:12,399 ~ 110 00:07:13,343 --> 00:07:19,008 Well, even then, what you find is that maybe you've got all of the power now, 111 00:07:19,008 --> 00:07:24,332 but the other person will find a way of evening things up. 112 00:07:24,332 --> 00:07:27,314 So even if you do have all of the power now, 113 00:07:27,314 --> 00:07:33,759 the other person can make things worse for you in different ways. 114 00:07:33,759 --> 00:07:35,981 So I'll give you an example of that. 115 00:07:35,981 --> 00:07:38,063 ~ 116 00:07:39,840 --> 00:07:43,722 I don't know, you're Italian, I don't know whether you had this issue in Italy, 117 00:07:43,722 --> 00:07:47,823 but in Britain, 10 years ago, we had a big scandal, 118 00:07:47,823 --> 00:07:50,665 and it was called the horse meat scandal, 119 00:07:50,665 --> 00:07:55,037 because the supermarkets, and in Britain there are four or five 120 00:07:55,037 --> 00:08:00,469 big supermarkets that control all of the high street food shopping. 121 00:08:00,469 --> 00:08:06,411 And so all of the food suppliers wanted to sell through the supermarkets, 122 00:08:06,411 --> 00:08:08,833 and the supermarket said, yeah, 123 00:08:08,833 --> 00:08:09,833 you can sell through. 124 00:08:10,313 --> 00:08:14,486 but only if you give us a really really good deal and they would squeeze 125 00:08:14,486 --> 00:08:18,458 the suppliers and squeeze them more because they could. 126 00:08:19,529 --> 00:08:23,360 And what happened was the suppliers said, 127 00:08:23,360 --> 00:08:25,741 yeah, yeah, yeah, we'll sign, we'll sign, 128 00:08:25,741 --> 00:08:30,062 we don't mind. But then instead of putting beef in the burger, 129 00:08:30,062 --> 00:08:34,683 they put horse meat in the burger because it was the only way they could make 130 00:08:34,683 --> 00:08:40,111 it profitable for themselves. And so that then became known and it became a scandal. 131 00:08:40,111 --> 00:08:42,184 It was terrible for the supermarkets. 132 00:08:42,184 --> 00:08:44,265 It was terrible for the suppliers. 133 00:08:44,265 --> 00:08:48,587 So basically, if you are, if you do have the power, 134 00:08:49,097 --> 00:08:54,494 the competitive win-lose approach always becomes lose-lose. 135 00:08:54,494 --> 00:08:58,640 Now, another area where it can go wrong 136 00:08:59,020 --> 00:09:03,566 is taking the collaborative type of negotiator. 137 00:09:04,871 --> 00:09:09,153 And there are many people who are nice people and who want to be collaborative, 138 00:09:09,153 --> 00:09:14,776 but they don't know how to do it beyond the simplest of situations. 139 00:09:14,776 --> 00:09:20,798 So let's say you run ~ a team in an organization, 140 00:09:20,798 --> 00:09:24,600 in a business, and you need more budget for a new project, 141 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:26,751 and you say to the finance director, 142 00:09:26,751 --> 00:09:29,803 hey finance director, can we have more budget? 143 00:09:29,803 --> 00:09:32,264 And the finance director says no. 144 00:09:32,264 --> 00:09:33,985 Well firstly, if they say yes, 145 00:09:33,985 --> 00:09:34,985 great. 146 00:09:35,378 --> 00:09:39,200 But if they say no, what do do? 147 00:09:39,200 --> 00:09:41,772 And most people don't know what to do next. 148 00:09:41,772 --> 00:09:44,843 They just say, please, ~ go on. 149 00:09:44,843 --> 00:09:47,345 No, no, really need the money. 150 00:09:47,345 --> 00:09:49,246 And the finance director will say, 151 00:09:49,246 --> 00:09:51,577 well no, we really don't have the money. 152 00:09:51,577 --> 00:09:52,577 the... 153 00:09:53,834 --> 00:09:58,708 the negotiators don't know what to do to go beyond that. 154 00:09:58,708 --> 00:10:01,811 Whereas there are methods. 155 00:10:01,811 --> 00:10:04,964 So for example, the workshops I run, 156 00:10:04,964 --> 00:10:10,498 we teach structured approaches for reaching win-win outcomes, 157 00:10:10,498 --> 00:10:14,782 ~ even in the toughest of situations. 158 00:10:14,782 --> 00:10:19,064 And so another issue where... 159 00:10:19,064 --> 00:10:20,064 Another... 160 00:10:20,479 --> 00:10:22,875 You know, I'm saying there are competitive negotiators and there 161 00:10:22,875 --> 00:10:24,409 are collaborative negotiators. 162 00:10:25,577 --> 00:10:28,548 And some of the collaborative negotiators that I teach, 163 00:10:28,548 --> 00:10:33,391 they say, yeah, Simon, great, but this doesn't work with the people 164 00:10:33,391 --> 00:10:36,372 who I'm negotiating with because they are competitive. 165 00:10:36,372 --> 00:10:42,435 So in those situations, what the collaborative negotiator has to do, 166 00:10:42,435 --> 00:10:48,978 it's kind of ~ an education process of showing the competitive negotiator, 167 00:10:48,978 --> 00:10:54,691 the aggressive negotiator, that they will be better off if they collaborate 168 00:10:54,691 --> 00:10:55,691 and there's ways you 169 00:10:55,531 --> 00:11:01,454 can do that, ways you can make the other person more collaborative basically. 170 00:11:04,680 --> 00:11:09,423 And I was wondering for all the situation when 171 00:11:09,904 --> 00:11:16,443 I mean because sometimes It could be that we express some concept in different ways. 172 00:11:16,443 --> 00:11:21,762 I don't know ~ The word capitalism can mean something 173 00:11:21,762 --> 00:11:27,106 for me something a little bit different for you for someone else depending 174 00:11:27,106 --> 00:11:30,759 on the background and so when ~ 175 00:11:30,820 --> 00:11:34,140 I don't know, it happened that there could be a conflict between 176 00:11:34,140 --> 00:11:40,920 two countries and I mean both of them maybe they want 177 00:11:35,765 --> 00:11:36,765 Yep. 178 00:11:40,920 --> 00:11:46,100 peace. mean in the newspaper they write this. 179 00:11:42,239 --> 00:11:43,314 Yeah. Yeah. 180 00:11:46,100 --> 00:11:50,400 So the goal is the same 181 00:11:46,794 --> 00:11:47,794 Yeah. 182 00:11:50,400 --> 00:11:54,640 but then probably they want different things. 183 00:11:55,050 --> 00:11:58,664 Yeah, absolutely. And so 184 00:11:59,060 --> 00:12:04,541 one of the core ~ factors 185 00:12:04,541 --> 00:12:09,376 for a successful negotiation is you saying you want peace. 186 00:12:09,376 --> 00:12:12,079 ~ 187 00:12:12,853 --> 00:12:15,406 for me to then understand, well, 188 00:12:15,406 --> 00:12:19,230 what do you mean by that? And why do you want that? 189 00:12:19,230 --> 00:12:24,517 And to not just take the request at the surface level, 190 00:12:24,517 --> 00:12:29,883 but to understand the reasons behind that and... 191 00:12:30,717 --> 00:12:34,308 if we can identify the reasons behind that, 192 00:12:34,308 --> 00:12:39,010 it's often easier to solve those than it is to solve 193 00:12:39,010 --> 00:12:41,751 the immediate problem kind of thing. 194 00:12:41,751 --> 00:12:45,723 there's a good example, you're talking about peace, 195 00:12:45,723 --> 00:12:49,014 so there's a good example that illustrates that and that was... 196 00:12:51,115 --> 00:12:57,158 ~ in the 1970s in between Israel and Egypt and they had been at war 197 00:12:57,178 --> 00:13:02,040 for 40 years or more ~ and there was a flare up there with the 198 00:13:02,040 --> 00:13:09,023 Yom Kippur war and what happened was that Egypt invaded Israel during 199 00:13:09,023 --> 00:13:14,236 their during the Jewish holiday Yom Kippur and it took Israel 200 00:13:14,236 --> 00:13:18,658 by surprise ~ and then Israel responded and there was backwards 201 00:13:18,658 --> 00:13:21,069 and forwards between the two army and then it 202 00:13:21,079 --> 00:13:26,284 came to a stalemate. And the two sides tried 203 00:13:26,284 --> 00:13:31,129 to negotiate a ceasefire line in the Sinai, 204 00:13:31,129 --> 00:13:33,321 which is where the fighting was taking place, 205 00:13:33,321 --> 00:13:38,846 ~ that the two armies could withdraw to ~ in the ceasefire. 206 00:13:39,964 --> 00:13:42,105 and they couldn't come up with a solution, 207 00:13:42,105 --> 00:13:47,368 ~ no matter how, and they spent years trying to find a line 208 00:13:47,368 --> 00:13:50,760 in the sand which the armies could withdraw to, 209 00:13:50,760 --> 00:13:54,292 and they couldn't. But then in 1978, 210 00:13:54,292 --> 00:13:57,593 in Camp David, they asked a different question, 211 00:13:57,593 --> 00:14:00,155 and the question they asked was not... 212 00:14:00,667 --> 00:14:03,508 Where in the sand do you want to draw the line? 213 00:14:03,508 --> 00:14:06,049 But what is this about for you? 214 00:14:06,049 --> 00:14:08,550 In other words, why? What's important to you here? 215 00:14:08,550 --> 00:14:10,091 What's really important to you? 216 00:14:10,091 --> 00:14:14,763 ~ And Egypt said, what's important is sovereignty. 217 00:14:14,763 --> 00:14:17,544 The Sinai is our land. We want our land back. 218 00:14:17,544 --> 00:14:20,295 It's always been our land. We want our land back. 219 00:14:20,295 --> 00:14:24,477 Israel said, well, what's important to us is security. 220 00:14:24,477 --> 00:14:27,518 We were invaded. We were taken by surprise. 221 00:14:27,518 --> 00:14:29,479 We don't ever want that to happen again. 222 00:14:30,269 --> 00:14:35,503 Hmm. Why didn't you say this? Because we can solve this and the solution 223 00:14:35,503 --> 00:14:41,307 was that the Sinai that the Israeli army withdrew back into Israel and 224 00:14:41,307 --> 00:14:43,489 So the Sinai went back to Egypt. 225 00:14:43,489 --> 00:14:48,773 They got their sovereignty They got their land back but the Egyptian army also 226 00:14:48,773 --> 00:14:54,577 agreed it would move back out of the Sinai and back into the Egyptian mainland 227 00:14:54,577 --> 00:14:56,038 if you like and 228 00:14:57,963 --> 00:15:03,926 ~ So it fought, the Sinai became a buffer zone between Egypt and Israel, 229 00:15:03,926 --> 00:15:09,208 which gave Israel early advanced warnings of any troop movements. 230 00:15:09,208 --> 00:15:15,531 Plus America helped build Israel a military airport just inside their border, 231 00:15:15,531 --> 00:15:18,813 again giving them early warnings of troop movements. 232 00:15:18,813 --> 00:15:22,494 So Egypt got its sovereignty, 233 00:15:22,494 --> 00:15:27,917 Israel got its security. And why this is a really nice example is 234 00:15:27,937 --> 00:15:33,069 that for years the classic approach to trying 235 00:15:33,069 --> 00:15:39,761 to negotiate had got nowhere. But by changing the approach and asking the question, 236 00:15:39,761 --> 00:15:44,442 what is this about for you, not only did it solve that problem, 237 00:15:44,442 --> 00:15:45,963 but 238 00:15:46,836 --> 00:15:51,079 Actually what happened is that Egypt and Israel realized they had found 239 00:15:51,079 --> 00:15:54,532 a way of working together. And the Egyptian president, 240 00:15:54,532 --> 00:15:58,685 President Sadat, gave a landmark speech in the Israeli parliament, 241 00:15:58,685 --> 00:16:02,348 the Knesset, and he said, we have found a way of working together. 242 00:16:02,348 --> 00:16:06,251 Let's carry on doing this. And they became allies. 243 00:16:06,251 --> 00:16:09,614 After decades of being at war, 244 00:16:09,614 --> 00:16:14,958 they ended the war and they became allies and have been allies since. 245 00:16:19,204 --> 00:16:23,363 And I was wondering, like if for you, 246 00:16:23,363 --> 00:16:27,511 because also now we have conflicts all around the world, 247 00:16:27,511 --> 00:16:33,286 I wonder why they don't ask this kind of question 248 00:16:33,286 --> 00:16:36,999 to solve the conflicts. ~ 249 00:16:35,891 --> 00:16:38,713 Yes, yes. 250 00:16:38,953 --> 00:16:41,214 So I think there are a number of reasons. 251 00:16:39,287 --> 00:16:40,287 Yep. 252 00:16:41,214 --> 00:16:44,306 One is kind 253 00:16:44,306 --> 00:16:49,259 of the personal reasons. 254 00:16:49,259 --> 00:16:52,521 well firstly, not everybody knows this approach. 255 00:16:52,521 --> 00:16:58,325 You would think in a government there would be enough experts that they would, 256 00:16:58,325 --> 00:17:01,487 but for example, Britain... 257 00:17:01,963 --> 00:17:05,925 You know, I'm British and recently we had the ~ Brexit, 258 00:17:05,925 --> 00:17:10,676 or I say recently, 10 years ago we had the Brexit referendum and then 259 00:17:10,676 --> 00:17:14,989 we left the EU. And with those negotiations, 260 00:17:14,989 --> 00:17:18,130 the chief negotiator, 261 00:17:18,130 --> 00:17:19,431 certainly on the British side, 262 00:17:19,431 --> 00:17:24,993 took a very wrong approach to negotiation and you think, 263 00:17:24,993 --> 00:17:31,467 this is so disappointing that people in positions of power are letting down their 264 00:17:31,467 --> 00:17:32,467 people. 265 00:17:31,870 --> 00:17:36,012 ~ There's also, 266 00:17:36,012 --> 00:17:41,136 I think, the personal things. 267 00:17:41,136 --> 00:17:46,199 for example, well for example, 268 00:17:46,199 --> 00:17:49,320 in Israel at the moment, 269 00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:53,203 ~ the Prime Minister there, 270 00:17:53,203 --> 00:17:54,664 Benjamin Netanyahu, 271 00:17:55,904 --> 00:17:59,967 there's an element to which he benefits from there being war. 272 00:17:59,967 --> 00:18:03,949 Because if the war finishes, 273 00:18:03,949 --> 00:18:09,393 he might not, it will be followed by elections 274 00:18:09,393 --> 00:18:15,277 in Israel and he probably won't win those and then he's likely to be prosecuted 275 00:18:15,277 --> 00:18:21,020 ~ in his country. So he's got personal reasons for not negotiating in good faith. 276 00:18:21,020 --> 00:18:24,223 ~ Plus I will say that, 277 00:18:24,223 --> 00:18:25,223 you know, 278 00:18:25,321 --> 00:18:27,291 I've never been a prime minister of a country. 279 00:18:27,291 --> 00:18:29,594 I can imagine these things are difficult. 280 00:18:29,594 --> 00:18:34,437 And there's all kinds of different pressures. 281 00:18:37,653 --> 00:18:40,145 politicians might want one thing, 282 00:18:40,145 --> 00:18:43,657 but then the journalists and the media will want other things, 283 00:18:43,657 --> 00:18:47,489 and the social media will be pressuring them in other ways. 284 00:18:47,489 --> 00:18:50,411 And I can imagine these things are difficult. 285 00:18:50,411 --> 00:18:56,115 But what we need is we need this best practice approach 286 00:18:57,095 --> 00:19:01,878 to be spread further and for it to become common knowledge, 287 00:19:01,878 --> 00:19:02,889 basically. 288 00:19:04,116 --> 00:19:07,519 Yeah, I agree. I was wondering, 289 00:19:07,519 --> 00:19:11,292 also, mean, politics in some way is 290 00:19:11,292 --> 00:19:17,168 to make sure that everyone reaches their goal. 291 00:19:17,168 --> 00:19:20,171 And so I wonder like, 292 00:19:18,015 --> 00:19:19,015 Yes. 293 00:19:20,171 --> 00:19:25,676 if negotiation in politics has some specific characteristic or... 294 00:19:27,701 --> 00:19:28,701 So I 295 00:19:28,241 --> 00:19:34,333 think, yeah, think two things I'll probably say. 296 00:19:34,333 --> 00:19:40,415 One is ego. ~ And so because the politicians, 297 00:19:40,415 --> 00:19:45,737 negotiations in politicians typically have very strong egos 298 00:19:45,737 --> 00:19:49,239 ~ and that does not lead to good outcomes. 299 00:19:50,548 --> 00:19:53,990 you want to have ego-free negotiations. 300 00:19:53,990 --> 00:19:59,845 ~ typically ~ politicians who conduct political negotiations 301 00:19:59,845 --> 00:20:01,796 are typically highly ambitious. 302 00:20:01,796 --> 00:20:08,330 It's very much about them and their power rather than ~ what's best 303 00:20:08,330 --> 00:20:10,032 for the greater good for the country, 304 00:20:10,032 --> 00:20:11,302 for the different communities. 305 00:20:11,302 --> 00:20:15,185 The other issue, and this is very big issue, 306 00:20:15,185 --> 00:20:16,486 is... 307 00:20:18,103 --> 00:20:19,764 That thing that we were just talking about, 308 00:20:19,764 --> 00:20:24,476 that there are many factors and many communities that involved. 309 00:20:24,476 --> 00:20:31,139 It's not a simple thing. It's not just me negotiating with my boss about 310 00:20:31,139 --> 00:20:33,490 a pay rise, about one simple thing, 311 00:20:33,490 --> 00:20:36,591 negotiating with one person about one outcome. 312 00:20:36,591 --> 00:20:42,804 They have got so many different interlinked problems 313 00:20:42,804 --> 00:20:45,295 to solve. ~ 314 00:20:45,355 --> 00:20:48,755 in affecting so many different people. 315 00:20:48,755 --> 00:20:53,075 So for example, I was just talking about Brexit. 316 00:20:53,075 --> 00:20:58,735 Well, prior to Brexit, there was a big trade agreement between 317 00:20:58,735 --> 00:21:05,675 the EU and Canada. Now, this trade agreement was worth a trillion dollars of trade. 318 00:21:05,675 --> 00:21:09,035 So it's a hugely important trade agreement. 319 00:21:09,035 --> 00:21:12,115 It affected 320 00:21:12,805 --> 00:21:14,757 half a billion people or more, 321 00:21:14,757 --> 00:21:21,592 ~ took 10 years to negotiate and at the end of it they reached 322 00:21:21,592 --> 00:21:26,927 a deal and that deal was blocked by Wallonia. 323 00:21:26,927 --> 00:21:31,170 Wallonia. Where on earth is Wallonia? 324 00:21:31,872 --> 00:21:34,605 Wallonia, three people live in Wallonia. 325 00:21:34,605 --> 00:21:38,059 I'm joking, Wallonia is a part of Belgium, 326 00:21:38,059 --> 00:21:40,881 I'm sure you know, it's the French speaking part of Belgium, 327 00:21:40,881 --> 00:21:46,728 but as a fraction of the area that it was impacted, 328 00:21:46,728 --> 00:21:49,120 it's a tiny fraction, but they said, 329 00:21:49,120 --> 00:21:50,832 no, we are not agreeing to this. 330 00:21:50,832 --> 00:21:53,535 And so, this is... 331 00:21:54,676 --> 00:21:58,857 kind of shows the complexity of political negotiations. 332 00:21:58,857 --> 00:22:01,258 So many different communities, 333 00:22:01,258 --> 00:22:06,860 each of whom have got different ideas and different desired outcomes ~ 334 00:22:06,860 --> 00:22:10,161 and so many different problems to be solved, 335 00:22:10,161 --> 00:22:14,362 all of which are interlinked, that it's a big challenge. 336 00:22:19,318 --> 00:22:25,165 And do you have other examples of good negotiations 337 00:22:25,165 --> 00:22:27,348 or like bad negotiations? 338 00:22:29,768 --> 00:22:34,333 Yes, So again staying with the geopolitics, 339 00:22:34,333 --> 00:22:37,816 ~ one example that I always think is, 340 00:22:37,816 --> 00:22:43,262 you know, gives me hope for the future and 341 00:22:44,745 --> 00:22:49,783 And whenever somebody says to me that their negotiation is impossible, 342 00:22:49,783 --> 00:22:52,547 I always think it's not as bad as this one, 343 00:22:52,547 --> 00:22:56,754 or as difficult as this one. And that was basically Northern Ireland. 344 00:22:56,754 --> 00:23:00,079 So in Northern Ireland... ~ 345 00:23:00,235 --> 00:23:02,955 There was a civil war, again, for many decades. 346 00:23:02,955 --> 00:23:07,295 And you had the Catholics on one side, 347 00:23:07,295 --> 00:23:09,135 you had the Protestants on the other. 348 00:23:09,135 --> 00:23:13,075 And for hundreds of years, they hated each other. 349 00:23:13,075 --> 00:23:16,635 And for decades, they were at war in the 70s, 350 00:23:16,635 --> 00:23:19,715 the 80s, the 90s, and so on. And by the way, 351 00:23:19,715 --> 00:23:21,295 my mum... 352 00:23:21,511 --> 00:23:25,052 was Irish Catholic and my dad was English Protestant. 353 00:23:25,052 --> 00:23:29,634 So we fought the Civil War in our dining room kind of thing. 354 00:23:29,634 --> 00:23:34,897 ~ nobody, 355 00:23:34,897 --> 00:23:39,649 the leaders on each side, on the Irish side was, 356 00:23:39,649 --> 00:23:43,920 sorry, on the Catholic side was ~ Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness 357 00:23:44,181 --> 00:23:49,583 and on the Protestant side was the Reverend Ian Paisley and they hated each other. 358 00:23:50,359 --> 00:23:57,252 hated each other. Zero trust. It was so bad that on both sides they 359 00:23:57,252 --> 00:24:02,214 bombed their own people so that they could blame the other side for it. 360 00:24:02,214 --> 00:24:08,537 ~ It was so bad. So nobody thought that there was going to be a solution. 361 00:24:08,537 --> 00:24:10,237 Nobody thought there could be peace. 362 00:24:10,237 --> 00:24:12,978 But what happened is that the... 363 00:24:12,978 --> 00:24:16,560 ~ 364 00:24:19,124 --> 00:24:24,886 The British government and the Irish government ~ had conversations in secret. 365 00:24:24,886 --> 00:24:27,817 And they said, look, we need to resolve this. 366 00:24:27,817 --> 00:24:31,028 This is a terrible situation. We need to resolve it. 367 00:24:31,028 --> 00:24:35,579 But it's so sensitive. It's so difficult. 368 00:24:35,579 --> 00:24:39,371 It's such a difficult problem to solve. 369 00:24:39,371 --> 00:24:42,192 We need to agree. 370 00:24:43,932 --> 00:24:48,874 And there is zero trust. Neither side trusts the other side at all. 371 00:24:48,874 --> 00:24:54,827 So we need to agree a process and really think hard about 372 00:24:54,827 --> 00:24:59,359 the process so that that will be successful so that 373 00:25:00,039 --> 00:25:02,760 the two sides don't trust each other, 374 00:25:02,760 --> 00:25:05,041 but they can trust the process. 375 00:25:05,041 --> 00:25:07,222 And if they can trust the process, 376 00:25:07,222 --> 00:25:09,123 they don't need to trust each other. 377 00:25:09,123 --> 00:25:10,344 And so... 378 00:25:11,210 --> 00:25:14,282 as a result of those conversations that they had in secret, 379 00:25:14,282 --> 00:25:20,505 they decided that the first stage of the process would 380 00:25:20,505 --> 00:25:24,187 be to include all parties separately, 381 00:25:24,187 --> 00:25:26,609 talking to all of them separately, 382 00:25:26,609 --> 00:25:31,171 to agree what that negotiation process would be. 383 00:25:31,171 --> 00:25:35,834 And if all of the parties, 384 00:25:35,834 --> 00:25:37,635 the Catholics, the Protestants, 385 00:25:37,635 --> 00:25:38,635 et cetera, 386 00:25:39,327 --> 00:25:45,661 created the process together, they would trust the process because they created 387 00:25:45,661 --> 00:25:49,454 it. and that's what happened. 388 00:25:49,454 --> 00:25:56,089 They spent a number of years firstly defining the negotiation process and then... 389 00:25:57,289 --> 00:26:01,231 Once that was agreed, they went through that process and everybody could trust 390 00:26:01,231 --> 00:26:05,614 the process and so it reached an agreement. 391 00:26:05,614 --> 00:26:08,316 And I'm not saying it's perfect in Northern Ireland now, 392 00:26:08,316 --> 00:26:14,680 but it was much better to the extent that the Reverend ~ Paisley became 393 00:26:14,680 --> 00:26:19,624 the First Minister of Northern Ireland and Martin McGuinness 394 00:26:20,512 --> 00:26:26,117 the Catholic who hated the in Paisley ~ became his deputy. 395 00:26:26,117 --> 00:26:29,340 They shared an office and they became friends. 396 00:26:29,340 --> 00:26:34,064 So this was the great success of what happened there. 397 00:26:35,779 --> 00:26:41,643 ~ Before you mentioned also that ~ part of your background 398 00:26:41,643 --> 00:26:46,927 was in IT and also you have written a book about 399 00:26:43,275 --> 00:26:44,275 Yes. 400 00:26:47,168 --> 00:26:53,372 how AI can end war. 401 00:26:49,824 --> 00:26:52,064 Yes. Yes. 402 00:26:53,372 --> 00:26:56,935 Would you like to tell us something about that? 403 00:26:57,738 --> 00:27:02,592 Yeah, so I first got involved in AI in 1989, 404 00:27:02,592 --> 00:27:05,264 a long time ago, but in a very, 405 00:27:05,264 --> 00:27:09,927 very small way. But then because I worked in the sector, 406 00:27:09,927 --> 00:27:12,968 I was interested in it and I followed it. 407 00:27:13,770 --> 00:27:18,102 And it was about the same time as I started up in negotiation, 408 00:27:18,102 --> 00:27:24,225 about 20 years. I read a book called ~ The Singularity 409 00:27:24,225 --> 00:27:29,747 is Near by Ray Kurzweil. And he is kind of an AI guru. 410 00:27:29,747 --> 00:27:35,270 And everything that we are seeing now with AI and Chan Chi PT and all of that, 411 00:27:35,270 --> 00:27:37,711 he predicted that 20 years ago. 412 00:27:37,711 --> 00:27:41,013 And he predicted lots of really amazing things. 413 00:27:41,013 --> 00:27:42,954 And I read this book and I said, 414 00:27:42,954 --> 00:27:43,954 whoa. 415 00:27:43,807 --> 00:27:48,229 This is really interesting. This is super important. 416 00:27:48,229 --> 00:27:54,263 Watch this space. So I became kind of obsessed with 417 00:27:54,263 --> 00:27:58,535 AI for the last 20 years and my field was negotiation. 418 00:27:58,535 --> 00:28:00,356 And I would... 419 00:28:01,664 --> 00:28:07,521 Then, obviously, I would look into what was happening in the world 420 00:28:07,521 --> 00:28:10,995 of AI and negotiation. And for a long time, 421 00:28:10,995 --> 00:28:14,880 nothing much was happening. And then a little bit was happening, 422 00:28:14,880 --> 00:28:18,424 but nothing too impressive. And then a little bit more. 423 00:28:18,424 --> 00:28:20,476 And then it was a couple of years ago, 424 00:28:20,476 --> 00:28:21,476 two years ago. 425 00:28:22,240 --> 00:28:25,541 that I looked into it and I found some really impressive stuff, 426 00:28:25,541 --> 00:28:28,202 really impressive stuff. And I thought, 427 00:28:28,202 --> 00:28:34,183 okay, there is a very positive story here to be told 428 00:28:34,443 --> 00:28:38,024 in terms of what is happening already in the world of AI 429 00:28:38,224 --> 00:28:43,846 and negotiation and what is likely to be happening in the future. 430 00:28:43,846 --> 00:28:49,067 And so just to give a few simple examples of... 431 00:28:49,067 --> 00:28:51,568 ~ 432 00:28:51,678 --> 00:28:53,809 what changed my mind and what made... 433 00:28:53,809 --> 00:28:59,801 So the book is called The End of Conflict and just because I saw them two years ago, 434 00:28:59,801 --> 00:29:03,762 there really is. As somebody who teaches negotiation and 435 00:29:03,762 --> 00:29:05,473 who teaches conflict resolution, 436 00:29:05,473 --> 00:29:11,315 I see a very positive route forward in terms 437 00:29:11,315 --> 00:29:13,496 of conflict resolution. So... 438 00:29:15,124 --> 00:29:17,174 The first thing that made me think, 439 00:29:17,174 --> 00:29:19,325 ~ there's something positive here, 440 00:29:19,325 --> 00:29:25,127 was quite simply ChatGPT. When ChatGPT came out in November 2022, 441 00:29:25,127 --> 00:29:28,388 to ~ start off with, 442 00:29:28,388 --> 00:29:31,489 it was okay, it was fun, 443 00:29:31,489 --> 00:29:32,669 you could play around with it, 444 00:29:32,669 --> 00:29:37,210 but it wasn't super useful. ~ But it wasn't long, 445 00:29:37,210 --> 00:29:39,441 maybe a year, a year and a half, 446 00:29:39,441 --> 00:29:41,752 where you could start to use it for... 447 00:29:42,887 --> 00:29:48,598 serious things and I started to use it for negotiation advice. 448 00:29:48,598 --> 00:29:52,869 I would ask it for a question on a negotiation and I noticed that it would give 449 00:29:52,869 --> 00:29:56,540 me very good advice based on best practice, 450 00:29:56,540 --> 00:30:02,362 based on collaborative negotiation and come up with creative solutions 451 00:30:02,862 --> 00:30:08,133 and I started to get quite impressed by its advice and so it made me think, 452 00:30:08,133 --> 00:30:11,304 hmm, well that means now everybody 453 00:30:12,198 --> 00:30:18,431 everybody has got access to a good negotiation consultant if you like 454 00:30:18,691 --> 00:30:23,973 and who will give them good advice and so and will give them collaborative advice. 455 00:30:23,973 --> 00:30:30,507 So now hopefully as people tap into that people will 456 00:30:30,507 --> 00:30:36,299 start to negotiate in a more collaborative way because they realize that this 457 00:30:36,299 --> 00:30:42,062 is the best approach and then as more and more people do this this will this will 458 00:30:42,102 --> 00:30:46,265 spread. This will spread through how do cultures change? 459 00:30:46,265 --> 00:30:49,286 Cultures change one person at a time, 460 00:30:49,286 --> 00:30:55,750 one behavior at a time. ~ so collaborative behavior will spread 461 00:30:55,750 --> 00:31:00,513 through communities, through the culture and bring about a positive 462 00:31:00,513 --> 00:31:04,256 ~ cultural transformation. So that was one thing. 463 00:31:05,962 --> 00:31:08,256 And around at about the same time, 464 00:31:08,256 --> 00:31:11,382 I interviewed somebody called Colin Irwin, 465 00:31:11,382 --> 00:31:15,509 Professor Colin Irwin, and he had worked in... 466 00:31:15,509 --> 00:31:16,912 ~ 467 00:31:17,384 --> 00:31:20,066 in the Northern Ireland ~ peace agreement. 468 00:31:20,066 --> 00:31:22,207 And what he did there, basically, 469 00:31:22,207 --> 00:31:25,230 ~ he would do kind of opinion polls. 470 00:31:25,230 --> 00:31:28,092 He would walk, this was in the 1990s, 471 00:31:28,092 --> 00:31:31,614 so he would walk the street, him and his team would walk the streets 472 00:31:31,614 --> 00:31:37,178 ~ with a clipboard and a pen, and he would stop people when they were shopping, 473 00:31:37,178 --> 00:31:38,839 and he would ask them... 474 00:31:40,041 --> 00:31:42,582 what do you want to see in the peace agreement? 475 00:31:42,582 --> 00:31:47,944 And some people would say this and some people would say that and such like. 476 00:31:47,944 --> 00:31:51,606 But he would also take down their age, 477 00:31:51,606 --> 00:31:54,607 their religion, their gender, 478 00:31:54,607 --> 00:31:59,359 these kinds of things. And he would feed all of this information back 479 00:31:59,359 --> 00:32:03,781 to the negotiators. And the negotiators would look at it and say, 480 00:32:03,781 --> 00:32:06,613 hmm, okay, so the Protestants, 481 00:32:06,613 --> 00:32:09,864 they will accept this, but they'd never accept this. 482 00:32:10,314 --> 00:32:13,456 and the Catholics would accept this but they'd never accept this. 483 00:32:13,456 --> 00:32:19,389 Okay, we can see where the solution is that both sides would accept and 484 00:32:19,389 --> 00:32:25,763 he did this one issue after another and so they were able to come to a solution, 485 00:32:25,763 --> 00:32:32,146 an agreement that when they put it to a referendum they knew all people 486 00:32:32,207 --> 00:32:34,528 or the majority of people would support it. 487 00:32:35,636 --> 00:32:38,019 So he was involved in Northern Ireland doing that. 488 00:32:38,019 --> 00:32:43,806 Now he still does the same thing in different conflict zones around the world, 489 00:32:43,806 --> 00:32:49,793 but now he uses AI to support his process. 490 00:32:49,793 --> 00:32:54,238 And so he uses a platform called Remesh. 491 00:32:54,238 --> 00:32:55,760 ~ 492 00:32:55,840 --> 00:32:59,522 You may know it's a deliberative democracy kind of platform. 493 00:32:59,522 --> 00:33:05,495 ~ You can hold conversations between ~ literally thousands 494 00:33:05,495 --> 00:33:10,627 of people on very difficult topics and reach nuanced agreements. 495 00:33:11,718 --> 00:33:15,950 So he told me how he was working in Libya. 496 00:33:15,950 --> 00:33:19,891 This was ~ 2020 or 2021, 497 00:33:19,891 --> 00:33:23,113 can't remember. But basically, 498 00:33:23,113 --> 00:33:27,871 the Libyan civil war, ~ it had reached a bit of a ceasefire, 499 00:33:27,871 --> 00:33:33,677 a pause. They were trying to make this more permanent 500 00:33:33,677 --> 00:33:39,560 ~ and trying to build a government of national unity. 501 00:33:40,537 --> 00:33:43,269 But you can imagine, was pretty, 502 00:33:43,269 --> 00:33:45,901 at the end of the Civil War, was pretty chaotic. 503 00:33:45,901 --> 00:33:48,263 Nobody thought that it was the end, 504 00:33:48,263 --> 00:33:49,844 they just thought it was a pause. 505 00:33:49,844 --> 00:33:53,577 Lots of warlords everywhere, 506 00:33:53,577 --> 00:33:56,449 all of whom hated each other and wanted revenge. 507 00:33:56,449 --> 00:33:59,351 So nobody thought it was a lasting peace, 508 00:33:59,351 --> 00:34:01,092 everybody thought it was just a pause. 509 00:34:01,092 --> 00:34:04,575 But they tried to form a government of national unity. 510 00:34:04,575 --> 00:34:05,615 And... 511 00:34:06,680 --> 00:34:11,101 He conducted a conversation between a thousand people 512 00:34:11,101 --> 00:34:15,362 ~ randomly selected from throughout the country, 513 00:34:15,362 --> 00:34:20,764 basically asking them what did they want to see in the government of national unity. 514 00:34:20,764 --> 00:34:26,306 And he did this in two hours live on national television. 515 00:34:26,306 --> 00:34:28,848 ~ 516 00:34:29,351 --> 00:34:31,993 A third of the country watched this. 517 00:34:31,993 --> 00:34:35,324 A thousand people were actually involved, 518 00:34:35,324 --> 00:34:37,255 but a third of the country watched it. 519 00:34:37,255 --> 00:34:42,399 And in two hours, they were able to reach an agreement on what they wanted 520 00:34:42,399 --> 00:34:46,641 to see in the constitution for the government of national unity. 521 00:34:46,641 --> 00:34:50,964 And they formed a government of national unity and it still exists. 522 00:34:50,964 --> 00:34:53,466 Now, again, it's not perfect there. 523 00:34:53,466 --> 00:34:56,447 But now, but these days... 524 00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:04,747 in a given month it might be tens of people who die through violence, 525 00:35:04,747 --> 00:35:07,370 whereas it used to be tens of thousands. 526 00:35:07,370 --> 00:35:11,635 So it was a huge advance, 527 00:35:11,635 --> 00:35:13,758 a huge improvement in what it was before, 528 00:35:13,758 --> 00:35:16,680 and that was facilitated through AI. 529 00:35:16,680 --> 00:35:17,680 And so... 530 00:35:18,924 --> 00:35:22,924 I've just been playing with ChatGPT and seeing the benefit of that and then 531 00:35:22,924 --> 00:35:25,004 I hear this story and I go, whoa, 532 00:35:25,004 --> 00:35:31,024 this is amazing. And then I start looking deeper and 533 00:35:31,024 --> 00:35:33,544 I see things like in the world of law. 534 00:35:33,544 --> 00:35:38,244 So AI is being used in the world of law. 535 00:35:38,244 --> 00:35:43,804 And another trend in the world of law is... 536 00:35:44,875 --> 00:35:48,707 trying to move from litigation to mediation. 537 00:35:48,707 --> 00:35:52,819 Litigation is the fight kind of thing, 538 00:35:52,819 --> 00:35:55,571 it's the fight approach, whereas mediation is 539 00:35:55,571 --> 00:35:57,872 the collaborative problem-solving approach. 540 00:35:57,872 --> 00:36:00,273 And they've been trying to move, 541 00:36:00,273 --> 00:36:03,355 certainly in the UK, they've been trying to move in that direction. 542 00:36:03,355 --> 00:36:09,018 But it's very slow, basically because the lawyers get paid more for fighting. 543 00:36:09,018 --> 00:36:12,720 So... ~ 544 00:36:13,354 --> 00:36:19,874 What's happened is that in ~ law there are software packages, 545 00:36:19,874 --> 00:36:22,919 AI-based packages that can now... 546 00:36:24,000 --> 00:36:30,223 mediate much more successfully than ever before and much cheaper. 547 00:36:30,223 --> 00:36:34,585 There are software platforms, AI-based platforms, 548 00:36:34,585 --> 00:36:40,147 that can predict a judge's decision with something like 549 00:36:40,147 --> 00:36:43,509 in some instances 95 %... Actually, 550 00:36:43,509 --> 00:36:49,462 that's probably wrong. ~ It's certainly 80 % accuracy and 551 00:36:49,462 --> 00:36:51,653 in some instances more accurate than that. 552 00:36:51,653 --> 00:36:53,694 So if you can 553 00:36:53,774 --> 00:36:59,837 predict a judge's decision, with that amount of accuracy, 554 00:36:59,837 --> 00:37:01,839 you're not going to go to court. 555 00:37:01,839 --> 00:37:06,621 Because let's say you think I owe you a million euros, 556 00:37:06,621 --> 00:37:11,894 let's say, ~ and you go onto this platform and you put in all 557 00:37:11,894 --> 00:37:16,507 of the information and the platform says, 558 00:37:16,507 --> 00:37:18,448 ~ 559 00:37:18,646 --> 00:37:24,708 that the judge will probably agree ~ that I owe you not a million, 560 00:37:24,708 --> 00:37:30,050 but half a million. And I go onto the same platform and I find out, 561 00:37:30,050 --> 00:37:33,681 yeah, the judge will find that I owe you a half a million. 562 00:37:33,681 --> 00:37:36,122 Well, we won't go to court because there's no point. 563 00:37:36,122 --> 00:37:37,783 We'll just shake hands on half a million. 564 00:37:37,783 --> 00:37:41,164 Because if I try and get, if I go to court to say... 565 00:37:41,665 --> 00:37:43,849 well I'll just lose and it will cost me more money. 566 00:37:43,849 --> 00:37:47,244 ~ So basically 567 00:37:47,244 --> 00:37:53,314 AI is changing the world of law massively so that 568 00:37:53,314 --> 00:37:55,668 it will be a solved problem. 569 00:37:56,501 --> 00:38:00,324 it will be universally available and free. 570 00:38:00,324 --> 00:38:04,266 The law will be free and universally accessible to everybody. 571 00:38:04,266 --> 00:38:07,849 So it's going to be a solved problem. 572 00:38:07,849 --> 00:38:10,611 There won't be legal conflicts like this anymore. 573 00:38:10,611 --> 00:38:14,724 Now I'm not saying all of this will happen overnight. 574 00:38:14,724 --> 00:38:16,235 I'm not saying all of this will happen... 575 00:38:17,674 --> 00:38:21,786 tomorrow but there are already things happening today 576 00:38:22,846 --> 00:38:27,659 and tomorrow there will be more and tomorrow the day after tomorrow there will 577 00:38:27,659 --> 00:38:32,531 be more still and the AI will get better and better and better and so 578 00:38:32,711 --> 00:38:36,398 and there are and there are other contexts like democracy and I'm sure that 579 00:38:36,398 --> 00:38:40,675 you know this is something you know a lot about the ~ AI is being used 580 00:38:40,955 --> 00:38:47,118 in deliberative democracy to bring about new because democracy is negotiated 581 00:38:48,118 --> 00:38:50,769 It's many, it's not one-to-one, 582 00:38:50,769 --> 00:38:52,800 it's many-to-many negotiation. 583 00:38:52,800 --> 00:38:59,752 And so there are ways, there are AI platforms that can hold these many-to-many 584 00:38:59,752 --> 00:39:03,464 negotiations and facilitate them very effectively. 585 00:39:06,286 --> 00:39:13,047 And I think about this many to many mediation and also what we said before that 586 00:39:07,134 --> 00:39:08,134 you 587 00:39:13,047 --> 00:39:18,107 there could be personal interest in not negotiate. 588 00:39:18,107 --> 00:39:20,407 So let's say I'm the president of Italy, 589 00:39:20,407 --> 00:39:23,167 you're the president of UK 590 00:39:23,167 --> 00:39:27,687 and I don't know. 591 00:39:28,319 --> 00:39:31,250 Maybe I have to do things because otherwise journalists, 592 00:39:31,250 --> 00:39:34,222 otherwise other politicians, the situation is complex. 593 00:39:34,222 --> 00:39:39,474 And so we do not reach an agreement because I'm not interested in to 594 00:39:34,890 --> 00:39:35,890 Yes. 595 00:39:39,474 --> 00:39:41,185 and you also have your constraints. 596 00:39:41,185 --> 00:39:45,007 So in relation to these, 597 00:39:41,867 --> 00:39:42,867 Yes. 598 00:39:45,007 --> 00:39:49,314 maybe there could be a sort of many to many mediation between, 599 00:39:49,314 --> 00:39:51,190 I don't know, Italian citizens. 600 00:39:51,190 --> 00:39:53,191 And so. ~ 601 00:39:52,640 --> 00:39:53,640 Yeah. 602 00:39:55,210 --> 00:39:56,210 Yeah. 603 00:39:55,316 --> 00:39:56,316 like 604 00:39:55,837 --> 00:39:59,961 because otherwise the leaders sometimes as we said are not interested 605 00:39:59,961 --> 00:40:06,379 in negotiating so it would be a mediation between citizens because 606 00:40:01,995 --> 00:40:02,995 Yeah. 607 00:40:05,963 --> 00:40:06,963 Yes. 608 00:40:06,379 --> 00:40:11,625 we want all to live in a a peaceful way yeah 609 00:40:10,656 --> 00:40:11,656 Yeah, 610 00:40:11,810 --> 00:40:12,810 exactly. 611 00:40:12,908 --> 00:40:16,028 Many years ago, when was it? think 2010, 612 00:40:16,028 --> 00:40:22,268 2011, I visited Syria and I was sitting and I was in Damascus 613 00:40:22,268 --> 00:40:27,248 and it was a beautiful city and I was sitting having a coffee in the morning, 614 00:40:27,248 --> 00:40:31,448 sitting outside this cafe watching the world go by and thinking what 615 00:40:31,448 --> 00:40:36,728 a beautiful city and what lovely people and I was aware that Baghdad 616 00:40:36,728 --> 00:40:42,862 in Iraq was only 200 miles in that direction and I was thinking what terrible things 617 00:40:42,952 --> 00:40:49,306 had happened there and thinking how so easily the same could happen here 618 00:40:49,406 --> 00:40:54,590 in Damascus and a year later it happened tragically you know it's terrible it's 619 00:40:54,590 --> 00:41:00,444 terrible and and but I was sitting in that cafe thinking these people don't want 620 00:41:00,444 --> 00:41:05,397 war these you know the people don't want war the politicians might 621 00:41:05,537 --> 00:41:11,821 or the journalists might or the arms manufacturers might and so they might stir 622 00:41:11,821 --> 00:41:12,821 the people up to 623 00:41:12,782 --> 00:41:15,224 want war but the people don't want war. 624 00:41:15,224 --> 00:41:20,502 So if it's people to people you're going to get better outcomes. 625 00:41:20,502 --> 00:41:26,433 As long as it's managed properly because people 626 00:41:26,433 --> 00:41:31,037 to people without, they need to be taken through the right process. 627 00:41:31,037 --> 00:41:34,040 The quality of the process is important. 628 00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:35,841 Like we saw with Northern Ireland, 629 00:41:35,841 --> 00:41:38,764 the quality of the process is important. 630 00:41:41,856 --> 00:41:47,998 And regarding to the process, how do you evaluate the quality of it? 631 00:41:47,998 --> 00:41:54,300 I mean, I can imagine that it has to be something that is good for both 632 00:41:54,300 --> 00:41:58,421 the parts and are there other 633 00:41:55,745 --> 00:41:56,745 Yes. 634 00:42:00,222 --> 00:42:02,103 way of evaluating the process? 635 00:42:03,904 --> 00:42:05,616 So, so I... 636 00:42:09,068 --> 00:42:10,499 That's a really interesting question. 637 00:42:10,499 --> 00:42:12,140 think it's a really important question. 638 00:42:12,140 --> 00:42:16,031 think ultimately, how do we evaluate the process? 639 00:42:16,031 --> 00:42:22,745 In a way, the only people who can decide that are the people who have gone through 640 00:42:22,745 --> 00:42:25,936 it. So, for example... 641 00:42:26,944 --> 00:42:29,314 There's a famous example, I'm sure you know it, 642 00:42:29,314 --> 00:42:34,788 of citizens' assemblies in Ireland in 2016 where they had 643 00:42:34,788 --> 00:42:37,359 a citizens' assembly about abortion, 644 00:42:37,359 --> 00:42:39,310 should abortion be made legal. 645 00:42:39,310 --> 00:42:42,451 And obviously in Ireland it's a very religious country, 646 00:42:42,451 --> 00:42:45,013 or certainly earlier generations, 647 00:42:45,013 --> 00:42:49,575 my generation and my mum, I've got lots of aunts and uncles, 648 00:42:49,575 --> 00:42:53,817 Irish aunts and uncles, then there's no way would they vote for abortion 649 00:42:53,817 --> 00:42:56,398 to be legalised. But then generations 650 00:42:56,558 --> 00:43:01,402 younger than me would insist on it being ~ legalised. 651 00:43:01,402 --> 00:43:03,483 So it's a very explosive topic. 652 00:43:04,480 --> 00:43:08,581 But they were taken through a process where they had the conversation 653 00:43:08,661 --> 00:43:11,452 and it was facilitated well. And in the end, 654 00:43:11,452 --> 00:43:16,964 they had a vote and two thirds voted for abortion to be legalized 655 00:43:17,104 --> 00:43:20,454 and one third voted, or not even one third voted against it, 656 00:43:20,454 --> 00:43:24,026 but I think some people abstained and some people voted against it. 657 00:43:24,026 --> 00:43:29,897 But what was really interesting was that even the people who voted against 658 00:43:29,897 --> 00:43:32,088 it supported it. 659 00:43:32,811 --> 00:43:35,702 because they said this was a good process. 660 00:43:35,702 --> 00:43:40,504 I was heard, my opinions were taken into account, 661 00:43:40,504 --> 00:43:43,366 I would have preferred a different outcome, 662 00:43:43,366 --> 00:43:47,187 but I recognize I'm a minority and my opinions were heard, 663 00:43:47,187 --> 00:43:49,468 so I will support this process. 664 00:43:49,468 --> 00:43:56,091 So for me, if even the people who got the wrong outcome support 665 00:43:56,091 --> 00:43:58,852 the process, that for me is a good process. 666 00:43:58,852 --> 00:44:02,664 Now, what are the factors that make a good 667 00:44:04,055 --> 00:44:08,398 I think that is a really good question and I think what's happening now 668 00:44:08,498 --> 00:44:14,041 is in the world of citizens assemblies and deliberative democracy 669 00:44:14,042 --> 00:44:19,535 and AI supported deliberative democracy I think there's lots and lots 670 00:44:19,535 --> 00:44:24,529 of examples happening around the world ~ in Italy, 671 00:44:24,529 --> 00:44:28,911 in Britain, all over the place and they're all doing 672 00:44:28,911 --> 00:44:32,554 it slightly differently and I think there's a 673 00:44:32,895 --> 00:44:37,693 a very big natural experiment going on because each... 674 00:44:39,018 --> 00:44:41,450 that each of them are slightly different. 675 00:44:41,450 --> 00:44:47,665 And so I think we will be able to step back and look at all 676 00:44:47,665 --> 00:44:53,801 of these and start to build a better sense of in this context, 677 00:44:53,801 --> 00:44:56,793 you need to do it this way. In another context, 678 00:44:56,793 --> 00:45:02,228 you need to do it another way and so on and build a better sense of what 679 00:45:02,228 --> 00:45:06,411 is the correct process that we need to be implementing. 680 00:45:10,958 --> 00:45:17,639 Do you think there is something else we should know about negotiation that 681 00:45:17,639 --> 00:45:21,559 maybe I haven't asked you the question? 682 00:45:22,700 --> 00:45:28,685 ~ So I think what I would love people to know is that there 683 00:45:28,685 --> 00:45:31,688 are best practice approaches. 684 00:45:32,193 --> 00:45:35,494 for solving even that really tough problem. 685 00:45:35,494 --> 00:45:39,776 Even that problem where the other person is being evil. 686 00:45:39,776 --> 00:45:44,738 Even that person, sorry, even that problem where it's zero sum. 687 00:45:44,738 --> 00:45:46,719 Anything I get is at their expense. 688 00:45:46,719 --> 00:45:48,680 Anything they get is at my expense. 689 00:45:48,680 --> 00:45:54,923 There are best practice solutions for solving even the toughest of problems. 690 00:45:54,923 --> 00:46:01,276 And so if people knew that more and then took the time 691 00:46:01,276 --> 00:46:02,276 to find out 692 00:46:02,126 --> 00:46:06,086 those best practice things then it would just, 693 00:46:06,086 --> 00:46:09,166 the world would become a better place and we wouldn't have wars and 694 00:46:09,166 --> 00:46:13,926 we wouldn't have arguments with our neighbors because that behavior would just 695 00:46:13,926 --> 00:46:19,466 spread and it would become easier and it would become a positive reinforcing loop 696 00:46:19,466 --> 00:46:21,406 through our culture. 697 00:46:26,362 --> 00:46:30,887 Do you have some best practices that can be shared? 698 00:46:30,887 --> 00:46:36,975 I think because maybe some of the listeners could be people that 699 00:46:36,975 --> 00:46:43,302 are also working on software that can help to negotiate or mediate. 700 00:46:41,131 --> 00:46:42,131 Yeah. 701 00:46:44,222 --> 00:46:49,620 Okay, so let's see what are the... 702 00:46:49,620 --> 00:46:54,106 I'll say a few things then. ~ One is, 703 00:46:54,106 --> 00:46:57,070 and we talked about this earlier on, 704 00:46:57,070 --> 00:46:58,192 ~ 705 00:47:00,232 --> 00:47:06,581 it's about understanding what you might call the need behind the need. 706 00:47:06,581 --> 00:47:13,210 So you might be saying I demand a million pounds and maybe 707 00:47:13,210 --> 00:47:17,134 I haven't got a million pounds to give you but... 708 00:47:17,444 --> 00:47:21,796 if I start exploring why is it you're demanding a million pounds, 709 00:47:21,796 --> 00:47:23,747 what do you need that money for, 710 00:47:23,747 --> 00:47:27,609 or why is it so important? And then ask, 711 00:47:27,609 --> 00:47:31,851 ~ just find out what's the real nature of the problem. 712 00:47:31,851 --> 00:47:34,592 And then similarly on my side, 713 00:47:34,592 --> 00:47:38,234 in negotiation terms, 714 00:47:38,234 --> 00:47:41,095 they call it the interest, your interest. 715 00:47:41,095 --> 00:47:46,278 Not what you're asking for, but what are your interests behind what you're asking 716 00:47:46,278 --> 00:47:47,278 for? 717 00:47:47,231 --> 00:47:48,231 similarly 718 00:47:47,792 --> 00:47:51,255 on my side. And that, those bigger, 719 00:47:51,255 --> 00:47:53,437 they're your more strategic objectives, 720 00:47:53,437 --> 00:47:55,800 if you like. The answer to the question, 721 00:47:55,800 --> 00:47:58,302 why, why am I in this negotiation at all? 722 00:47:58,302 --> 00:47:59,644 And... 723 00:48:00,138 --> 00:48:02,629 That is going to give you much better solutions. 724 00:48:02,629 --> 00:48:05,790 ~ If we go back to the Israel and Egypt thing, 725 00:48:05,790 --> 00:48:08,830 at the, we want the line to be here, 726 00:48:08,830 --> 00:48:10,631 well, we want the line to be here. 727 00:48:10,631 --> 00:48:12,632 They just couldn't solve that. 728 00:48:12,632 --> 00:48:15,792 But when it was, well, why do you want the line to be there? 729 00:48:15,792 --> 00:48:18,173 Well, for our sovereign, national sovereignty. 730 00:48:18,173 --> 00:48:20,034 Why do you want the line to be there? 731 00:48:20,034 --> 00:48:22,794 Well, for our security. ~ okay, 732 00:48:22,794 --> 00:48:25,225 we can solve that. So that's one thing, 733 00:48:25,225 --> 00:48:27,676 work at that higher level, the interests. 734 00:48:29,118 --> 00:48:31,490 Another thing is I say be creative. 735 00:48:31,490 --> 00:48:38,316 I think negotiation is a highly creative process. 736 00:48:38,316 --> 00:48:43,081 ~ Because if we're talking about problem solving, 737 00:48:43,081 --> 00:48:45,803 sometimes these problems are difficult. 738 00:48:45,803 --> 00:48:52,550 So you've got to be a creative person to come up with the solution that nobody else 739 00:48:52,550 --> 00:48:53,550 had thought of. 740 00:48:55,442 --> 00:49:02,124 Often it's about identifying more than one variable that's negotiated 741 00:49:02,124 --> 00:49:05,425 over. So, nine times out of ten, 742 00:49:05,425 --> 00:49:07,716 are about one variable and that's money. 743 00:49:07,716 --> 00:49:12,957 know, whether it's price or budget or salary or whatever, 744 00:49:12,957 --> 00:49:15,738 ~ it's about, all it is is about money. 745 00:49:15,738 --> 00:49:20,500 And if the negotiation is just about one thing like that, 746 00:49:21,844 --> 00:49:26,169 you can't get a win-win because if I'm negotiating with you ~ over 747 00:49:26,169 --> 00:49:30,794 the price of something, any penny you get is at my expense. 748 00:49:30,794 --> 00:49:33,317 Any penny I get is at your expense. 749 00:49:33,317 --> 00:49:35,399 So it's impossible to get win-win. 750 00:49:36,229 --> 00:49:39,951 But as soon as we start bringing in more variables, 751 00:49:39,951 --> 00:49:44,334 we can now get a win-win across the package of variables. 752 00:49:44,334 --> 00:49:50,108 So it's not just price, it's also quantity and quality and payment terms 753 00:49:50,108 --> 00:49:55,722 and delivery terms and a million other things that you can bring into it. 754 00:49:55,722 --> 00:50:00,885 And the more creative you are about bringing these different things into it, 755 00:50:00,885 --> 00:50:04,767 the more likely you can find a solution that genuinely 756 00:50:05,908 --> 00:50:11,311 achieves your goals and genuinely achieves my goals. 757 00:50:10,915 --> 00:50:12,595 Clear. 758 00:50:11,311 --> 00:50:12,912 That's probably what I would say. 759 00:50:12,912 --> 00:50:15,453 One other thing, one other thing, 760 00:50:15,453 --> 00:50:20,826 as I would also say, just try and step into the shoes of 761 00:50:20,826 --> 00:50:25,299 the other person and try and understand where they're coming from. 762 00:50:25,299 --> 00:50:30,021 So if I'm negotiating with you about something, 763 00:50:30,021 --> 00:50:33,523 if I were to, before the meeting, 764 00:50:33,523 --> 00:50:34,684 if I just think, hmmm... 765 00:50:35,434 --> 00:50:37,325 I've got a meeting with Alessandro coming up. 766 00:50:37,325 --> 00:50:39,846 How does he see this situation? 767 00:50:39,846 --> 00:50:42,208 What does he want to achieve from it? 768 00:50:42,208 --> 00:50:44,889 And what does he not want to happen? 769 00:50:44,889 --> 00:50:48,972 This kind of stuff. If I just take a little bit of time to do that, 770 00:50:48,972 --> 00:50:54,665 that is probably gonna give me insight into a solution that you are likely 771 00:50:54,665 --> 00:50:55,665 to agree to. 772 00:50:58,528 --> 00:51:03,513 Thank you. the last question is if you have any message for 773 00:51:03,513 --> 00:51:09,309 the people that are looking to end conflicts that could 774 00:51:09,309 --> 00:51:15,485 be with innovative like with software 775 00:51:15,505 --> 00:51:17,387 or could be like in other ways. 776 00:51:17,387 --> 00:51:21,031 But yeah, a message to those people. 777 00:51:21,772 --> 00:51:24,936 So my message to those people is firstly, 778 00:51:24,936 --> 00:51:31,154 thank you. Thank you so much for the work that you are doing because it's such 779 00:51:31,154 --> 00:51:34,508 important work. It's so brave. 780 00:51:34,508 --> 00:51:36,170 It's so hard. 781 00:51:38,692 --> 00:51:44,935 My message is also keep going because even if the progress seems slow there 782 00:51:44,955 --> 00:51:50,518 is progress We you know the world is much safer than it was a hundred years 783 00:51:50,518 --> 00:51:55,470 ago And that was safer than it was five hundred years ago and so on so 784 00:51:55,470 --> 00:51:59,762 we are making progress keep going ~ 785 00:51:59,762 --> 00:52:05,515 If I would encourage people working in the sector to just 786 00:52:05,515 --> 00:52:08,336 see what a I might do for them and 787 00:52:08,366 --> 00:52:14,089 AI is such a powerful tool that it 788 00:52:14,089 --> 00:52:19,426 can help in any field and we are seeing. 789 00:52:20,772 --> 00:52:27,385 Every field is, there is somebody bringing AI to that field and making advances 790 00:52:27,385 --> 00:52:32,738 and making progress. So, now obviously there are risks and there are dangers with 791 00:52:32,738 --> 00:52:35,019 AI and I totally understand that, 792 00:52:35,019 --> 00:52:39,861 but there is a very positive side as well if we use it positively. 793 00:52:39,861 --> 00:52:44,183 And so I encourage people working in the conflict resolution sector 794 00:52:44,363 --> 00:52:50,266 to look into that and see how it might help them in their situations. 795 00:52:50,286 --> 00:52:51,286 Thanks. 796 00:52:52,190 --> 00:52:53,679 Thank you a lot Simon. 797 00:52:54,861 --> 00:52:58,541 My pleasure, my pleasure. It's been very great fun talking to you. 798 00:52:58,638 --> 00:52:59,638 Thank you.